长输油气管道含缺陷环焊缝失效定量风险研究-.pdf

故障与安全

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-2206.2024.05.012

长输油气管道含缺陷环焊缝失效定量风险研究

郗涛

国家管网西部管道独山子分公司，新疆独山子833600

摘要：长输油气管道业务在飞速发展的同时，也面临着巨大的安全挑战。受工期、焊接技术水平、环境等因

素的影响，环焊缝成为长输管道安全运行的薄弱环节，焊缝失效是导致长输油气管道安全事故的主要原因之

一。对含缺陷的环焊缝失效进行定量风险研究，综合分析了焊口数据、气象、周围人口分布等信息，采用失效

评估图技术和蒙特卡罗法相结合的方法计算了含缺陷管道的失效概率，以西气东输三线管道某含缺陷的环焊缝

为研究对象，采用Phast/Safeti软件计算了失效后果，根据失效概率和失效后果对含缺陷管道的风险进行了分

析，并通过对其失效风险进行详细模拟，得出对应的定量风险评价结论。

关键词：环焊缝失效；含缺陷管道；定量风险研究；长输油气管道

Failureriskofdefectivegirthweldsinlong-distanceoilandgaspipeline

XITao

DushanziBranchofNationalPipelineCorporationWestPipelineCo.,Ltd.,Dushanzi833600,China

Abstract：Therapiddevelopmentofthelong-distanceoilandgaspipelinebusinessisfacedwithenormoussafetychallenges.

Influencedbytheconstructionperiod,weldingtechnologylevel,environment,andotherfactors,girthweldsbecometheweaklinkinthe

safeoperationoflong-distancepipelines,withweldfailureresponsibleforsafetyaccidentsinlong-distanceoilandgaspipelines.This

paperconductsquantitativeriskresearchonthefailureofdefectivegirthwelds.Aftercomprehensivelyanalyzingwelddata,

meteorologicalstate,surroundingpopulationdistribution,andotherenvironmentalfactors,thispapercalculatesthefailureprobability

withacombinationofafailureassessmentdiagramandtheMonteCarlomethod.Inaddition,thePhast/Safetisoftwareisusedto

calculatethefailureconsequenceswithadefectivegirthweldinthe3rdWest-EastTransmissionPipelineastheobjective.Accordingto

thefailureprobabilityandconsequences,thispaperanalyzestherisksofdefectivepipelinesandstimulatesthefailurerisksindetail,

finallyproposingcorrespondingconclusionsofquantitativeriskassessment.

Keywords：girthweldfailure;defectivepipeline;quantitativeriskresearch;long-distanceoilandgaspipeline

[3]

油气管道是国民经济的大动脉，管道安全与预测以及检测手段开展，包括失效风险、失效概