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GlobalMacroResearchTOPofMINDISSUE131|
GlobalMacroResearch
TOPofMIND
ISTHEFEDBEHINDTHECURVE?
JustasUSin?ationconcernsmovedintotherearview,thelabormarketstartedsendingworryingsignals,withtheJulyjobsreporttriggeringtheSahmrule,raisingthequestionofwhethertheFedisbehindthecurveincuttingratesandtheriskofrecession.FormerregionalFedPresidentsBillDudleyandRobKaplan,SahmrulecreatorClaudiaSahm,andGSGIR’sDavidMericlehavevaryinglevelsofconcernaboutthelabormarket,withDudleymostworriedabouttheriskofanegativefeedbackloopbetweenjoblossesandreducedspendingthatwouldleadtorecession,Sahmsomewhatconcerned,andKaplanandMericlelessworried.TheyalsogenerallydisagreeonwhethertheFedhaswaitedtoolongtocut,withMericle
andKaplanarguingthattheFedisnotmeaningfullybehindthecurve,SahmmoreconcernedthattheFedhasyettoact,andDudleyworriedthattheFedmayalreadybetoolatetoavertrecession.GSstrategistsarguethatmarketsarevulnerabletosharpcorrectionsshouldrecessionoccur,butthatriskyassetswouldhaveroomtorunifitdoesn’t.
“WHAT’SINSIDEINTERVIEWSWITH:BillDudley,FormerPresidentoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYorkRobKaplan,FormerPresidentoftheFederalReserveBankofDallas,ViceChairmanatGoldmanSachsClaudiaSahm,ChiefEconomistatNewCenturyAdvisors,Former
“
WHAT’SINSIDE
INTERVIEWSWITH:
BillDudley,FormerPresidentoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYork
RobKaplan,FormerPresidentoftheFederalReserveBankofDallas,ViceChairmanatGoldmanSachs
ClaudiaSahm,ChiefEconomistatNewCenturyAdvisors,FormerSectionChiefattheFederalReserveBoardofGovernors
DavidMericle,ChiefUSEconomistatGoldmanSachs
USEQUITIES:FURTHERROOMTORISE
BenSnider,GSUSPortfolioStrategyResearch
CONSUMERDEBT:HEALTHYONNET
Lot?KarouiandVinayViswanathan,GSCreditStrategyResearch
AROUNDUPO
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