高盛-美国经济深度-大选及经济，移民 贸易和财政赤子 The Election and the Economy Estimating Immigration, Trade, and Fiscal Effects (PhillipsMericleKrupa) 09042024.docx

3September2024|12:53PMEDT

USEconomicsAnalyst

TheElectionandtheEconomy:EstimatingImmigration,Trade,andFiscalEffects(Phillips/Mericle/Krupa)

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Wediscusslikelychangestotrade,immigration,and?scalpolicyundereachpossibleelectionoutcomeandestimatetheeffectsonin?ation,laborforcegrowth,GDP,andthede?cit.

Tradepolicy:IfformerPresidentTrumpwins,weexpecthewouldraisetariffs

onimportsfromChinaatanaveragerateof20ppandonautosfromMexicoandtheEU.Whilemarketparticipantsshouldtakehisproposalofa10%universal

tariffseriously,wedonotquiteviewitasthebasecase.WedonotexpecttariffincreasesifVicePresidentHarriswins.

Immigrationpolicy:IfHarriswins,weexpectthatnetimmigrationwillcontinuetoslowto1.5mnperyear,somewhatabovethepre-pandemictrendof1mn.If

Trumpwinswithdividedgovernment,weexpectnetimmigrationwillfallto

1.25mn.IfRepublicanssweep,Congresscouldincreaseenforcementresources,andweexpectnetimmigrationwouldfallto0.75mn.

Fiscalpolicy:Fiscalpolicyislikelytobetighterunderdividedgovernmentthanundersingle-partycontrol.IfDemocratssweep,personalandcorporatetaxes

andbene?tspendingwilllikelyrise.IfRepublicanssweep,theywilllikelystay

mostlyunchanged.Dividedgovernmentscenarioswouldlikelyresultinamodestnetincreaseinreceipts,asCongresswouldlikelyallowtheupper-incomeportionofthe2017taxcutstoexpire,butlittlechangetobene?tprograms.

Impactonin?ation:Weestimatethatevery1ppincreaseintheeffectivetariffratewouldraisecorePCEpricesby0.1pp.IfTrumpwins,tariffsonimportsfromChinaandautoswilllikelycomequickly,raisingtheeffectivetariffrateby3-4ppandcorePCEin?ationby30-40bpatthepeak.The10%universaltariffisnotinourbasecasebutwouldhaveroughlytriplethatimpact.

Impactonthelaborforce:Weestimatethatthecontr