高盛-商品深度，铜和黄金等 Commodity Views Go for Gold09032024.docx

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2024-09-08 发布于山西
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高盛-商品深度，铜和黄金等 Commodity Views Go for Gold09032024.docx

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2September2024|6:01PMEDT

CommodityViews

GoforGold

nMoreselective,lessconstructive.Whileour2024De?citsBasketperformed

wellthisyear,asofteningofcyclicalsupporttocommoditiesleadsustowardsamoreselectivetacticalapproachtocommodityinvesting.Tobeclear,westronglybelieveinthediversifyingroleofcommoditiesininvestmentportfoliosbasedonseveralstructuraldrivers,includingcommodities’hedgingroleagainstsupply

disruptions,notanuncommonoccurrenceinenergy.Thatsaid,tacticallywe

closeour2024De?citsBasketrecommendationwithapotential8%gainand

focusonourhighestconvictionviewsinthecurrentenvironment,namelyhigherimpliedoilvolatility,longgoldandshortlong-datedEuropeannaturalgas.

nOilcaution.Chinadatathissummersuggestweakeningcyclicalsupportto

commoditydemand,andtooil/copperinparticular.Inoil,whileDMdemandhasbeenmodestlystrongerthanweexpected,itisdif?culttobuildde?citswithoutstrongChinademand,especiallywhensupplyissurprisingtotheupside.Asa

result,we’vetakenamorecautiousstanceonoilandwerecommendthatoilproducershedgetheirexposurebybuyingputs.

nCopperrallydelayed.Incopperwe’veobservedsigni?cantpriceelasticityofbothsupplyanddemandthissummer.Asaresult,thesharpcopperinventorydepletionwehadexpectedwilllikelycomemuchlaterthanwepreviously

thought.Accordingly,wedelayourend-2024coppertargetof$12,000/tto

_post-2025,implyinga2025copperforecastof$10,100/t,stillabovethisYTD’s$9231/t,butwellbelowourprevious$15,000expectation.

nGoforgold.Ourpreferrednear-termlongisgold.Itremainsourpreferredhedgeagainstgeopoliticaland?nancialrisks,withaddedsupportfromimminentFed

ratecutsandongoingEMcentralbankbuying.Wemaintainour2025targetof$2,700/tozandopenalonggoldtradingrecommendation.

nShortlong-datedTTF.Inenergy,weseeacleard