高盛-交易观点汇报0818 2024 Connecting You to GS.. Thoughts from the Floor...docx

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高盛-交易观点汇报0818 2024 Connecting You to GS.. Thoughts from the Floor...docx

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**ConnectingYoutoGS..ThoughtsfromtheFloor..

FICCandEquities|17August2024|7:22AMUTC

ClickheretoseeheretoseemyWeekendMailGSMarketViewpage:

ThemesresonatingwithglobalclientsatthemomentandGSviews/thinkingonthetopics.Reachoutiftherearecomments,opinionsand/orideasyouwanttodiscusswiththepeoplebelow.

1)ConnectingyoutoGS:WhatdoweexpectfromJacksonHolenextweek?WhatdowethinkontheEquity/Bond

correlationfromhere-Havewefullymovedfromaninflation-togrowth-focusedregime?CantheFedcut50bpsin

SeptemberifPayrollsmovebacktothe3maverage+U3remainsunchangedat4.2%?HowispositioningintheJPYCarry-tradenow+cantheBoJeverhikeagain?Whatsignaldoyoutakefromthevolatilityofpastfewweeks-ApurgeofconcentratedpositionsinSummerlowliquidityorasignofmarketvulnerabilitytotheverycrediblethreatofa

recession?

2)TradesweLike:ResettingCrashProtection:Thereboundinrisk-assetssincetheearlyAugustlowshasNOTbeenmatchedbyanytangibleturninclient-sentimentordramaticparticipationfromthelong-sideand,forthosestillcautious/bearishabouttheimmediatemarket-outlook(electionuncertainty,growthconcerns,deterioratingUSLabormarket,

peakearnings,geo-politicaloverhang),weareapproachinglevelsinanumberofmarketswhereitmightbeopportunetore-set‘crashprotection’.Moreover,wehavetransitionedtoamarketmoreconcernedaboutdownsiderisksto

growthandRealisedEquity/BondcorrelationshaveflippedbacktoNegativeforthefirsttimesincetheSVB-episodelastyear,actuallythemorenormallonger-runrelationship.Despitethis,ImpliedCorrelationmarketsstillofferanumberofopportunitiestore-settradeswithconvexitytoa‘NegativeGrowthShock’bysellingthisCorrelationatattractive