高盛-中国思考-全面弱势 China Three things in China0818 2024.docx

18August2024|7:59PMHKT

China:ThreethingsinChina

ThreequickhighlightsfromChina:

nWeakJulyactivitydata:Julyindustrialproductionincreased5.1%yoyandJulyretailsalesgrew2.7%yoy,mostlyinlinewithmarketexpectations.However,

?xedassetinvestmentwasmuchweakerthanexpected,rising3.6%ytdyoyvs.Bloombergconsensusof3.9%ytdyoy,partiallyduetoadverseweather

conditionssuchasheatwavesandheavyrainfallsinthemonth.Housingstartsandnewpropertysalescontinuedtodeclinesequentially,althoughcompletionsincreased9.6%mom.

HuiShan

+852-2978-6634|hui.shan@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

NewstartsandsalesdeclinedfurtherinJuly

Mnsqm

250

200

150

100

50

Monthlynewpropertystartsandsales(seasonallyadjusted)

NewpropertystartsNewpropertysales

Mnsqm

250

200

150

100

50

00

00020406081012141618202224

Source:NBS,HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

nWeakJulycreditdata:Julytotalsocial?nancing(TSF)?owcameinat

n

_RMB771bn,belowconsensusandourexpectationofRMB1000bn.Mostofthecreditgrowthwasdrivenbygovernmentbondissuance(RMB688bn).M1

_

growthdippedfurtherto-6.6%andcorporatedemanddepositsdropped18.2%yoy,asignoflimitednear-terminvestmentplansoncorporates’part.Household

loangrowthwasanemic.Duringthe?rstsevenmonthsofthisyear,total

householdloanbalanceonlyincreasedRMB1.3tn,comparedtoRMB2.6tnlastyearandRMB5tnin2021.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certi?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachs