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FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries
FederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.
ISSN1936-2854(Print)
ISSN2767-3898(Online)
TheMacroeconomicEfectsofExcessSavings
BenceBardoczy,JaeSim,andAndreasTischbirek
2024-062
Pleasecitethispaperas:
Bardoczy,Bence,JaeSim,andAndreasTischbirek(2024).“TheMacroeconomicEfectsofExcessSavings,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2024-062.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,/10.17016/FEDS.2024.062.
NOTE:StafworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstafortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.
TheMacroeconomicEffectsofExcessSavings
BenceBardczyJaeSimAndreasTischbirek*July2024
Abstract
Westudytheconsequencesofshockstothehouseholdwealthdistributionindynamicgeneralequilibriumbycharacterizingtherateatwhichexcesswealthisdepleted.An-alyticalresultslinktheaggregatedecumulationratetothedistributionoftheadditionalbalances,microintertemporalmarginalpropensitiestoconsume,andgeneralequilibriumfeedback.AquantitativeheterogeneousagentNewKeynesianmodelmatchesthedeple-tionpathoftheexcesssavingsbuiltupduringtheCOVID-19pandemicacrosstheincomedistribution.Themodelpredictsasubstantialbutsteadilywaningboosttoconsumptionandexplainsupto40percentofthesurgeininflationobservedin2020and2021.
Keywords:Excesssavings,heterogeneousagentNewKeynesian(HANK)models,incom-pletemarkets,householdportfolios,inflationdynamics,COVID-19pandemic
JEL
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