此为英文文档Barclays_Global_Portfolio_Manager_s_Digest_Spending_Spree.docx

CrossAssetResearch

2June2024

GlobalPortfolioManagersDigestSpending

GlobalPortfolioManagersDigest

SpendingSpree

Weprovidecontextandperspectiveonresearchacrossregionsandassetclasses,thisweekhighlighting:ourtop-downand

bottom-upanalysisoftheSovereignAIopportunity;anexaminationofthegapbetweenCPIandPCEinflationmeasuresintheUS;andourdeepdiveintothefinancialconditionsinKorea.

?TheSovereignAIOpportunity:WeexaminedtheSovereignAIopportunityandattemptedtosizetheU.S.andglobalappetitefordirectAIinvestmentonbothatop-downandbottom-upbasis.Basedonouranalysis,weseetheU.S.governmentaccountingfor~$4bninAIspend

thisyear,withthetop10largestglobaleconomies(ex-China)accountingforanadditional

$3.5bninspendbasedonGDPscaling.Wealsoseesignificantpotentialforthatnumbertogrowonanannualbasis,bothfromgreenfielddeploymentsandrefreshcycles,likely

approachingthe$25bnmarkoverthenextseveralyearsasclustersizesandhardwarecostsmarchhigher.OutsideofdirectSovereigninvestment,wealsoseeasignificantcasefor

SovereignstodirectAIspendingpassivelythroughtheprivatesector.Further,giventhe

significantmonetaryandenergyoverheadrequiredbyleading-edgeAIclusters,wewould

expectonlyabout15nationsgloballytohavefiscalbudgetsabletoaccommodateSovereignAI.

?UnderstandingtheGapBetweenCPIandPCE:WetookalookatthegapbetweentheCPIandPCEcoreinflationmeasures,whichremainsmuchwiderthanhistoricalnorms.Gaps

betweentheCPIandPCEcoremeasuresoftenreflectthehigherweightappliedtohousingrents,andthecurrentsituationisnoexception.Theweighting-relatedportionoftheCPI-PCEgapfromshelterislikelytopersistthisyear,asweforecastonlyamodestdecelerationin

shelterinflation.Inaddition,althoughboththeCPIandPCEmeasuresofhealthcareservicesinflationhaveaccelerated