此为英文文档Barclays_Global_Macro_Thoughts_Going_nowhere_fast.docx

FOCUS

FOCUS

FICCResearch

GlobalMacro

GlobalMacroThoughts

Goingnowherefast

3June2024

AjayRajadhyaksha

+12124127669

ajay.rajadhyaksha@BCI,US

MaxKitson

+44(0)2035552386

max.kitson@Barclays,UK

KaanhariSingh

+85229032651

kaanhari.singh@BarclaysBank,HongKong

Wherenotedinthesourcenotes,theviewsexpressedwithinthisreportaretakenfrompreviouslypublishedresearch.Forfurtherdetail,includingimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertifications,pleasefollowthelinksoneachpageandonpage8.

Thisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreports

preparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suchtradinginterestsmaybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport.

Pleaseseeanalystcertificationsandimportantdisclosuresbeginningonpage9.

Completed:03-Jun-24,10:26GMTReleased:03-Jun-24,10:30GMTRestricted-External

SomewhatsofterUSdata,andslightlyhigherEuroareainflation

?ThereweremoresignslastweekofamildUSslowdown1

oPendinghomesalesandthem-o-mFHFApriceindexbothsurprisedtothedownside

oDomesticfinalsalesinQ1werelowerthaninthefirstGDPreading(2.8%vs.3.1%)ifstillhealthy

oRealconsumptionwasalittlesofterthanexpected,withrealgoodsspendingespeciallyweak

?CorePCEinflationcameinat0.249%m-o-m,adownshiftfromQ1’sverystrongnumbers1

oButYTD2024coreinflationisstilluncomfortablyhigh,evenifweexpectsofterreadingsincomingmonths

oCoreservicesPCEinflationwasup0.27%,alsomu