BDA-老虎基金淘宝服务板块研究报告EN-2015 02 28.pptx

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BDA-老虎基金淘宝服务板块研究报告EN-2015 02 28.pptx

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StudyonTaobaoServiceSectors

BullishonLottery,MovieandTravel

NeutralonAutoandEducation

BearishonFoodService,HomeServiceandRealEstateFebruary28,2015ForTigerGlobalManagementOnly?BDA2015

ExecutiveSummaryLotteryMovieFoodServiceHomeServiceEducationTravelAutoRealEstate2TableofContents

Generallyspeaking,wearepositiveregardingTaobao’spotentialinlottery,movie,andtheoveralltravelsector,asthesesectorsarelargelydependentontrafficvolume,whichisdefinitelyTaobao’scompetitiveedge(1/2)3LotteryMovieRMB80BN(ByGMV)andexpectedtogrowrapidlyataCAGRof~36%Onlinepenetrationtogrowfrom21%to59%through2014-2020RMB12BN(ByGMV)andexpectedtogrowrapidlyataCAGRof~42%Onlinepenetrationtogrowfrom40%to71%through2014-2020Closetoendgame,likelytobesharedbytrafficleaders,i.e.TaobaoandTencentTaobao’scurrentshareis~26%StillevolvingandcurrentlyledbyMeituanTaobao(2%m/s)iscatchingupquicklyVerystandardproductandservices,benefitingtrafficleadersNoofflineinputrequiredHighlyidenticalproducts;withtrafficleadersbeingthebeneficiaryLowentrybarriertoexpandcinemacoveragem/stogrowfrom26%to30-45%in2020Grossmargintodeclinefrom10%to7%,asthefavorablecompetitionenvironmentforonlineplayerswillbegraduallyeliminatedm/stogrowrapidlyfrom2%to24%in2020Grossmargintorisefrom3%to8%,approachingtheaveragetakerateofonlinemovieticketingSource:BDAanalysisSectorOnlineMarketDynamicsCompetitiveLandscapeKeyCapabilitiesRequiredTaobao’sOpportunitiesandRisksWithhugepotentialWithlittlepotential

Generallyspeaking,wearepositiveregardingTaobao’spotentialinlottery,movie,andtheoveralltravelsector,asthesesectorsarelargelydependentontrafficvolume,whichisdefinitelyTaobao’scompetitiveedge(2/2)4TravelSource:BDAanalysisAirTicketHotelReservationPackagedTourAttractionTicketsRMB156BN(ByGMV),CAGR