IMF-菲利普斯曲线变陡了吗？（英）-2023.5-23页.pdf

Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper? Anil Ari, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Shruti Mishra WP/23/100 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023 MAY © 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/100 IMF Working Paper European Department Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper? Prepared by Anil Ari, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Shruti Mishra* Authorized for distribution by S. Ali Abbas May 2023 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes whether structural changes in the aftermath of the pandemic have steepened the Phillips curves in advanced economies, reversing the flattening observed in recent decades and reducing the sacrifice ratio associated with disinflation. Particularly, analysis of granular price quote data from the UK indicates that increased digitalization may have raised price flexibility, while de-globalization may have made inflation more responsive to domestic economic conditions again. Using sectoral data from 24 advanced economies in Europe, higher digitalization and lower trade intensity are shown to be associated with steeper Phillips curves. Pos