世界贸易组织能否成为反全球化的堡垒？（英）.pdf

doi: 10.1111/aepr.12445 Asian Economic Policy Review (2023) 9999, 1–16 Can the World Trade Organization Act as a Bulwark Against Deglobalization? Simon J. EVENETT† University of St. Gallen and CEPR Whether existing multilateral trade commitments really deter larger trading nations from taking steps that further weaken cross-border commercial ties is assessed here. Evidence from salient commercial policy episodes of recent years is combined with information on the actual leeway available to G-20 members under extant World Trade Organization rules. The upshot is a bleak assessment of the capacity of the existing multilateral trade rule book to rein in any attempt by larger trading nations to “deglobalize” the world economy. Key words: multilateralism, protectionism, trade policy, unilateralism, WTO JEL codes: F13, F52, F53 Accepted: 7 September 2023 1. Introduction After the Global Financial Crisis analysts debated whether globalization – the ever- greater integration of national markets – was slowing down. Recently, the debate has shifted to whether the world economy has entered a phase of deglobalization. In light of growing geopolitical tensions and the so-called Polycrisis, some have gone so far as to argue that deglobalization – taken here to mean the conscious thinning of cross-border commercial ties through state action – is necessary. My goal here is not to assess whether the world economy is or has been deglobalizing (Baldwin, 2022a,b,c,d; Evenett, 2023; Goldberg Reed, 2023). Nor is my purpose to assess whether deglobalization is desirable or what its end point might be (Evenett, 2023). Nor will I consider the factors that have triggered discussions of deglobalization (Leonard, 2021). Here, I ask a different question: If a government con- templated trade policy me