资金流与金融风险管理.pptx

International Finance:Managing Capital Flows and Financial RisksJoint CCER-World Bank Institute course July 16-20, Beijing, China1 Capital Flow Volatility and Financial Risks:OverviewDr. Yan Wang, Senior EconomistManaging Capital Flows and Financial Risks,a CCER-WBI joint course July 16-20, Beijing, China2 Capital Flow Volatility Financial RisksI. Rise and Fall of Capital FlowsCapital flow volatilityImplicit government guaranteesmarket failuresVolatility hurts growth and hurts the poor mostII. New issues in managing risksFiscal risks and gov’t contingent liabilitiesDerivatives and risks“Value at Risk”Early warning indicators Short term flows and crisesIII. Policy options to manage financial risks A spectrum of capital flow interventions Chile: reserve requirements for short term inflows: pros and cons Sound banking system and regulations: currency risk exposure and etc. Competition and corporate governance crucial for market disciplineSummary3 Global Integration and Capital Flow Volatility4 The rise and fall of international capital flows:capital market flows are volatileSource: GDF 2000.5 Capital Flow Volatility: FDI is More StableSource: GDF, 19996 Large reversals in net private capital flows7 Capital Flow Volatility is linked with Volatile GrowthRelationship between economic growth variability and volatility in private foreign capital flowsSource: Thomas et al “The Quality of Growth,” 2000.8 1970-791980-841985-891990-9601020304050Number of episodesSystemiccrisesSmallercrisesCapital Flow Volatility is linked with Frequency in Systemic Banking CrisesFrequent Banking Crisis9 Banking Crises and aftermath are extremely costly for the real economy: unfair burden for the poorHigh Cost of Banking Crises10 Growth Volatility hurts the poor mostSource: Thomas et al “The Quality of Growth”, 2000.11 Financial Deepening in the Domestic Economy can facilitate Economic Growth, however...Source:Thomas et al “The Quality of Growth, 12000.12 Capital Account Openness i