GDP与居民储蓄对国债发行规模影响的实证分析-经济与金融专业论文.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE 6 GDP与居民储蓄对国债发行规模影响的实证分析 摘要 国债的首要作用是弥补出现的财政赤字，当然还具有筹集资金，进行宏观调控等重要作用。国债发行规模对经济发展具有两面性，既有积极促进作用，也具有消极阻碍作用。因此如何控制保持国债发行规模在我国经济可承受范围内就显得至关重要。为研究国债发行规模受那些因素影响，国内外学者专家进行了深入的研究，并取得了显著成果。 国债发行规模受多种因素的影响，本文主要探究GDP与居民储蓄对国债发行规模是否具有显著影响，是否是国债发行规模的主要影响因素。运用Eviews10软件构建多元回归模型，进行t检验、F检验、拟合优度检验，实证分析结果显示GDP与居民储蓄对我国国债发行规模之间不显著。 关键词：国债发行规模；GDP；居民储蓄 Empirical Analysis of The Impact of GDP and Household Saving on The Issuance Scale of National Debt ABSTRACT The primary function of national debt is to make up for the financial deficit that appears, still have raise funds of course, carry on macroscopical control to wait for important effect. The scale of national debt issuance has two sides to economic development, both positive promoting effect and negative hindering effect. Therefore, how to control and maintain the scale of national debt issuance in the affordable range of our economy is very important. In order to study the influence of these factors on the scale of national debt issuance, scholars and experts at home and abroad have conducted in-depth research and achieved remarkable results. The scale of national debt issuance is affected by various factors. This paper mainly explores whether GDP and household savings have a significant impact on the scale of national debt issuance, and whether they are the main influencing factors of the scale of national debt issuance. The use of Eviews10 software to construct multiple regression model, t test, F test, goodness of fit test, empirical analysis results show that GDP and household savings on the size of China’s national debt issuance is not significant. Keywords:National debt issued； GDP ；Household savings 目录 TOC \o "1-3" \h \u 一、引言 1 （一）研究背景 1 （二）研究意义和目的 2 1.研究的意义 2 2.研究的目的 2 二、文献综述 2 （一） 国外研究现状 2 （二） 国内研究现状 3 三、国债规模对经济的影响 3 （一）国债对经济的影响 3 1.对财政收支的影响 4 2.对货币供给的影响 4 3.对消费的影响 4 （二）国债规模对经济的影响 4 1.积极影响 4 2.消极影响 4 四、实证分析 5 （一）变量选取 5 （二）数据列举 5 （三）模型建构 6 1.一元线性