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物流与供应链(英文);Outline;Traditional View: Logistics in the Economy (1990, 1996);Traditional View: Logistics in the Manufacturing Firm;Supply Chain Management: The Magnitude in the Traditional View;Supply Chain Management: The True Magnitude;What is a supply chain?;Flows in a Supply Chain;Cycle View of Supply Chains;Push/Pull View of Supply Chains;Examples of Supply Chains;What is Supply Chain Management?;The Value Chain: Linking Supply Chain and Business Strategy;Achieving Strategic Fit;Levels of Implied Demand Uncertainty;Understanding the Supply Chain: Cost-Responsiveness Efficient Frontier;Achieving Strategic Fit;Strategic Scope;Drivers of Supply Chain Performance;Considerations for Supply Chain Drivers;Supply Chain Decisions: Structuring Drivers;Major Obstacles to Achieving Fit;Dealing with Multiple Owners / Local Optimization;Dealing with Product Variety: Mass Customization;Fragmentation of Markets and Product Variety;Tailored Logistics;Applying the Framework to e-commerce: What is e-commerce?;Existing Channels for Commerce;Revenue Impact of E-Commerce;Cost Impact of E-Commerce;Seven Eleven Japan;Seven Eleven - Number of Stores;Seven Eleven - Net Sales;Seven Eleven - Pre tax Profit;Seven Eleven - Inventory (days);Japanese Images of Seven Eleven;Key Product Categories;Store Description;Supply chain Objective;Facilities Strategy;Information Strategy;Information Analysis of POS Data;Distribution Strategy;The Future;Summary;Planning Demand and Supply in a Supply Chain;Learning Objectives;Supply Chain Decisions;Characteristics of forecasts;Demand Forecast Involve Factors:;Forecasting Methods;Basic Approach to Demand Forcasting;Components of an observation;Time Series Forecasting;Time Series Forecasting;Forecasting methods;S = (L+T)× Seasonality
L = Estimate of level for period 0;
T = Estimate of trend (per period);
St = Estimate of seasonal factor for period t
Dt = Actual demand observed in period t
Ft = Forecast of demand for period t
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