基于Bass模型的短生命周期产品需求预测研究-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

华 华 中 科 技 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II Abstract With the continuous developing of technology, the short life cycle products have gradually become the mainstream of modern products. Demand forecast of the products has become particularly important for the decision-making in the short life cycles. At the same time, traditional forecasting methods are difficult to achieve the forecast accuracy of the demand, which requires deep research on the forecasting methods. The domestic and foreign research results about the Bass diffusion model are first reviewed and the necessity of this research is proposed because it fills the gaps in the short product life cycle of demand forecasts using the Bass diffusion model. The applicability and limitations of the Bass model used in the product with short life cycle are proved and the Generalized Bass model (GBM) is proposed by the mathematical derivation. Then based on the GBM, the price elasticity coefficient is introduced, which quantifies the significantly impact of the price on the products with the short life cycle. The paper also rebuilt the Generalized Bass model in the dynamic market potentiality. Finally, through the empirical research on the sales forecast of a certain brand of MP3, the paper compared the forecast accuracy of the three models (original Bass model, the GBM and the GBM with the dynamic m). The results are fitting and predicted using the 1stop software. By the comparison of the Square of the correlation coefficient, Standard deviation and the sum of Residual Square, the research found the GBM with the dynamic m had the highest precision and the original Bass model had the lowest precision. The results of the empirical research are same as the results of theoretical research discussed before, which proved the advanced nature of the GBM once again. At last, the paper summarized the characteristics of this research and some of the problems encountered in the research. It also made the prospects and gave some recommenda