毕业论文-高速公路道路交通智能预测的分析与设计.doc

. PAGE . 摘 要 本文对交通流预测的历史、背景、意义、发展现状以及路段交通流预测的基本框架、模型作了比较深入的探讨，通过对现有高速公路交通流预测模型和高速公路交通流特性分析的基础上，先对江门市目标路段进行了交通调查，采用神经网络的方法解决高速公路道路交通交通流量预测问题。论文首先介绍道路交通流量预测方法和BP神经网络的原理，然后建立交通流量智能预测模型，再用MATLAB软件对样本数据进行训练，在用训练好的模型对交通流量进行预测并对结果进行分析。实验表明，此种预测方法为路段短时交通流预测提供了一种有效的途径，对高速公路交通流量的预测具有积极的意义。 关键词: 高速公路；交通流；BP神经网络；预测 Abstract . Traffic flow prediction, the history, background, significance, developing status quo and basic framework of road traffic flow prediction, model are made a in-depth discussion in this paper. Based on the existing highway traffic flow prediction model and based on the analysis of highway traffic flow characteristics, the first target sections of jiangmen city traffic survey was carried out, using the neural network method to solve the problem of highway road traffic flow prediction. It introduces road traffic flow prediction method and the principle of BP neural network, and then establish traffic flow intelligent prediction model, then use MATLAB software to training sample data, in using the trained model to forecast the traffic flow and analyze the results. Experiments show that the prediction method of short-term traffic flow prediction, provides an effective way for the highway traffic flow forecast has the positive significance. Key words the highway Traffic flow The BP neural network prediction 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125148 摘 要 PAGEREF _Toc358125148 \h I HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125149 Abstract PAGEREF _Toc358125149 \h II HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125150 第1章 绪 论 PAGEREF _Toc358125150 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125151 1.1课题背景 PAGEREF _Toc358125151 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125152 1.2 研究目的和意义 PAGEREF _Toc358125152 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125153 1.3 国内外文献综述 PAGEREF _Toc358125153 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125154 1.4 本论文主要内容 PAGEREF _Toc358125154 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125155 第2章 交通流预测模型 PAGEREF _Toc358125155 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125156 2.1 交通流理论基础 PAGEREF _Toc358125156 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc358125157 2.2