国际贸易理论和实务Ch.4 Post H-O thoery.ppt

  §1 The Product Cycle Theory 1. The imitation lag hypothesis Formally introduced in 1961 by Michael V. Posner (波斯纳). It paves the way for a better known theory — the product cycle theory. The same technology is not available in all countries. There is a delay in the transmission of diffusion (传播) of technology from one country to another. The imitation lag: The period of time between when the product is produced in Country I and when it is produced in Country II. (take time to learn, purchase inputs, install equipment, process the inputs, etc. ) The demand lag: The period of time between when the product is sold in Country I and when it is demanded by consumers in Country II. 2. The product cycle theory Built upon the imitation lag hypothesis, was developed in 1966 by Raymond Vernon. Vernon emphasizes manufactured goods, and the theory begins with development of a new product in the USA. The new product: (a) cater to high income demands because the USA is a high-income country; and (b) to be labor-saving and capital-using in nature. Life cycle: three stages 1st Stage: New product stage Produced and consumed only in the USA. Product and the production process in a state of change. No international trade takes place. 2nd Stage: Maturing product stage Some general standards, mass production techniques, economies of scale (contrasts with H-O and Ricardo). Overseas demand occurs. Export, principally to Western Europe. Investment? if so, exports decline, may even import. The country source of exports shifts throughout the life cycle of the product PCT and Dynamic Comparative Advantage §2 The Linder Theory The theory of demand preference similarity, income trade theory. By the Swedish economist Staffan Linder in 1961. Exclusively demand oriented, dramatic departure from the H-O model. Linder