凯恩斯的animalspirits理论.PPT

The Stock Market and Investment 股票市場與投資 洪靖宜 曾佳彥 楊逸玲 鍾錦樑 How does the stock market affect business investment? There are three direct effects. 股票市場如何影響商業投資?主要有三方面。 One is that the market has traditionally served as a general barometer of the expectations of the business-minded community as a whole. 首先，股市一向為重要指標，能大略觀察出投資人的投資型態。 barometer 氣壓計,晴雨表;指標 We say “business-minded” rather than “business” because the demand for, and supply for, securities mainly comes from securities dealers, stockbrokers, and the investing public, rather than from non-financial business enterprises themselves. 我們用「投資人」而不是「商業界」，因為證券交易的供需並非來自企業本身，而是證券商、股票交易員與投資大眾。 securities dealer 證券交易商 stockbroker 股票交易員 When the market is buoyant, it has been a signal to business that the “business climate” is favorable, and the effect on what Keynes called the “animal spirits” of executives has been to encourage them to go ahead with expansion plans. 當市場走向樂觀，代表景氣看好，而那些被凱恩斯形容為「野心勃勃」的主管、經理們，也將更勇於放手一搏、拓展企業。 buoyant 上漲的;能浮起的 When the market is falling, on the other hand, spirits tend to be dampened, and executives may think twice before embarking on an expansion program in the face of general pessimism. 但另一方面，假如市場趨弱、投資人信心受打擊，主管們也不得不屈就現實、再三評估。 dampen 使消沉;抑制 This traditional relationship is, however, greatly lessened by the growing power of government to influence the trend of economic events. 然而，隨著政府對經濟走向的影響力日益增大，前述的傳統關係影響也日趨衰弱。 lessen 削弱,減弱 Business once looked to the market as the key signal for the future. Today it looks to Washington. 商界曾經將股市視為未來走向的一大指標，但今天這個地位被政府取代了。 Hence, during the past decade when the stock market has shown wide swings, business investment in plant and equipment has remained basically steady. 因此，不管過去幾十年來股市是如何的大起大落，商界在工廠及設備的投資上還是保持穩定。 This reflects the feelings of corporate managers that government policy will keep the economy growing, whatever “the market” may think of events. 這也反映出企業管理者對政府的看法，他們認為無論股市的表現如何，政策都足以讓經濟穩定成長。