产业景气循环图.ppt

Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis vs. Technical Analysis Fundamental analysis tells you if an asset is a good buy candidate. Technical analysis helps you make the buy decision Framework of Analysis Fundamental Analysis Approach to Fundamental Analysis: Domestic and global economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis Why use the top-down approach? Top – Down Approach Bottom –Up Approach Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis is an approach to analyzing market behavior that stresses the study of underlying factors of supply and demand. It is done in the belief that such analysis will enable one to profit by being able to anticipate price trends. A Fundamentalist is a market observer-and/or participant who relies principally on Supply/demand considerations in price forecasting. Demand Shocks Demand shock - an event that affects demand for goods and services in the economy Tax rate cut Increases in government spending Supply Shocks Supply shock - an event that influences production capacity or production costs Commodity price changes Educational level of economic participants Macroeconomy GDP Auto Steel Manufacturing in general Inflation Regulated co’s; utilities Input prices more flexible than output Oil companies w/reserves Macroeconomy Exchange Rates Export sensitive: want weak dollar Import sensitive (inputs): want strong dollar Interest rates Housing Consumer durables Business investment Financial services companies Utilities Macroeconomy Consumer sentiment Autos Consumer durables Fiscal Policy Government Spending Taxes Stock Index and Business Cycle Business Cycles Business Cycle Peak Trough Industry relationship to business cycles Cyclical Defensive Effects on the Business Cycle Government Fiscal Policy Taxes and government spending As interest rates increase, other investment vehicles become more attractive than common stock Monetary Policy money supply and interest rates Other Factors - inflation consumer spending business investme