中国畜产品供求变动分析及展望.pdf

农业消费展望 中国畜产品供求变动分析及展望 韩昕儒1 李国景1 钱小平2 陈永福1 （1 中国农业大学经济管理学院 北京 100083 ； 2 日本国际农林水产业研究中心 筑波 305-8686 ） 摘 要： 随着经济的长期快速增长， 中国畜产品的供求形势也发生了结构性变化。 从生产、 消费、 国际贸易和供 求平衡4 个角度对中国畜产品供求变动进行分析发现， 中国畜产品产量和出栏量均呈现不断增长的趋势， 生产结构变 化明显， 规模化养殖程度不断加深； 城乡居民人均畜产品需求量均不断增加， 但农村居民与城镇居民的畜产品消费量 仍存在一定差距； 中国已经从畜产品的净出口国变为净进口国， 从贸易顺差国变为贸易逆差国， 国内需求的 “ 刚性” 增长和国内外畜产品价格差的存在可能是导致中国畜产品进口快速增加的原因。 根据中国食物供求模型的模拟结果可 知， 030 年中国将净进口畜产品 22.5 万 。 2 6 t 关键词： 中国； 畜产品； 供求分析； 展望 Chinas Livestock Supply and Demand and Its Outlook Han Xinru1, Li Guojing1, Chien Hsiaoping2, Chen Yongfu1 1 （ College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083; 2Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, Tsukuba 305-8686 ） Abstract ： With the rapid growth of Chinas economy for a long time, the supply and demand situation of livestock in China experienced a quick structural change. This paper analyzed changes in livestocks supply and demand from the views of production, consumption, international trade and the equilibrium of supply and demand. The results showed that: firstly, Chinas livestock production and slaughtering quantity had a rising trend, while production structure made an obvious change, and farm scale enlarged quickly; secondly, though per capita livestock consumption in urban and rural areas had been increasing, there was still a gap between the two regions; thirdly, China had become a net livestock importer leaving a trade deficit due to the continuing growth of domestic demand and the price gap