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Landscape Ecology 15: 495–504, 2000. 495
© 2000 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.
A geography of ecosystem vulnerability
James D. Wickham1, Robert V. O’Neill2 and K. Bruce Jones3
1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (MD-56), Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, U.S.A.
2 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-4036, U.S.A.
3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Las Vegas, NV 89119, U.S.A.
(author for correspondence)
Received 25 October 1998; Revised 28 April 1999; Accepted 12 July 1999
Key words: GIS, land-cover change, population modeling, roads
Abstract
Land-cover change and the subsequent potential loss of natural resources due to conversion to anthropogenic use
is regarded as one of the more pervasive environmental threats. Population and road data were used to generate
interpolated surfaces of land demand across a large region, the mid-Atlantic states of Pennsylvania, Delaware,
Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. The land demand surfaces were evaluated against land-cover change, as
estimated using temporal decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In general, the interpolated
surfaces exhibited a plateau along the eastern seaboard that sank to a valley in the center of the study area, and then
rose again to a plateau in the west that was of overall lower height than the plateau on the eastern seaboard. The
spatial pattern of land-cover change showed the same general pattern as the interpolated surfaces of land demand.
Correlations were significant regardless of variations used to generate the interpolated surfaces. The results suggest
that human activity is the principal agent of land-cover change at regional scales in this region, and that natural
resources that change as land cover changes (e.g., water, habitat) are exposed to a gradient of vulnerability that
increases from west to ea
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