安全事故指标多变量灰色预测方法及应用.pdf

2014 40 6 年第 卷第 期 工业安全与环保 June 2014 Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection ·47 · 安全事故指标多变量灰色预测方法及应用＊ 1 1 2 陈国华 陈珑凯 张华文 (1． 华南理工大学安全科学与工程研究所 广州510640 ; 2 ． 浙江海洋学院石油化工学院 浙江舟山316004 ) ， ， 摘 要 应用安全目标管理理论的基本原理 阐述了事故指标的性质和作用 识别影响事故系统的经济 ， 。 社会因素 构建事故控制指标预测的多变量灰色方法模型 引入事故折减系数对政策干预成效进行量化表 ， ， 。 ， 征 并构建事故折减系数的预测模型 得到基于安全改善的绩效指标 结合事故指标历史数据进行应用研究 结果表明多变量灰色模型在事故指标趋势预测方面具有较高的准确性。 关键词 安全生产 事故指标 灰色预测模型 事故折减系数 The Method of Multivariable Gray Model for the Forecast of Safety Accident Indicators and Its Application CHEN Guohua1 CHEN Longkai1 ZHANG Huawen2 (1． Institute of Saf ety Science and Engineering ，South China University of Technology Guangzhou 510640) Abstract The features and effects of accident indicators are expounded through the theory of safety management by objective ，the economic and social factors affecting the accident system are identified and a multivariable gray model is constructed to forecast the accident control indicators． The accident reduction factor is introduced to quantize and characterize the effectiveness of work safety policy intervention ，then the accident reduction factor prediction model is built up and the performance indicators based on safety improvement is achieved． The historical data is collected and the accident indicators prediction method is also applied． The results show that the method of multivariable gray model for the forecast of safety accident is feasible and highly a