2010年上海世博会对上海旅游业的影响分析.doc

摘要 本文以客流量为切入点，定量地分析评价2010年世博会对上海旅游业的直接影响和后效应。首先运用两样本检验法的Mann-Whitney检验，把2010年1—12月份入境旅游人数分为两个独立总体，为了更充分说明世博会对旅游业的影响，把会展期间（5—10月）入境旅游人数分为一个总体；1，2，3，4，11，12月为另一个总体，通过Mann-Whitney检验，说明世博会的举办对上海入境旅游人数有显著性作用。然后基于2004—2009年各月份上海入境旅游人数已有的客流量数据，进行时间序列分析，建立灰色预测模型，运用灰色预测中的GM(1,1)预测模型预测出假如不在上海举办世博会情况下2010年各月份上海入境旅游的人数，与上海举办世博会情况下2010年各月份上海入境旅游的实际值作出比较，进一步得出2010年世博会对上海旅入境旅游人数的影响，从而说明其对上海旅游业的影响。 最后通过对1999年昆明世博会举办后对当地旅游业未来几年的影响分析，发现虽然世博会已经结束，但其对当地未来几年的旅游业还有着重大的影响，从而说明上海世博会过后，其对上海未来的旅游业也还存在着重大的影响。 关键字：世博会；旅游业；Mann-Whitney检验；灰色预测模型 Abstract This article to passenger as the breakthrough point, Quantitative analysis evaluation of Shanghai expo 2010 tourism directly affects and later effect. First, the two samples using the Mann-Whitney test method test, The 2010 1-12 months tourist arrivals are divided into two independent overall, In order to more fully explain the impact of tourism in World Expo, The exhibition period (5-10 months) Tourist arrivalsInto an overall, 1,2,3,4,11,12 months for another overall , By Mann-Whitney test, The world expo in Shanghai that held tourist arrivals have significant role. Then based on the 2004-2009 in Shanghai tourist arrivals existing traffic data, The time series analysis, a grey prediction model, Gray prediction GM (1,1) prediction model to predict if the situation is not under the Shanghai World Expo Shanghai in January 2010 the number of inbound tourism, And the Shanghai World Expo in January 2010 the case of inbound tourism Shanghai to compare the actual value of the, Further draw Shanghai World Expo 2010 Tour of tourist arrivals, To explain the impact of tourism on the Shanghai.Finally, the 1999 World Expo will be held in Kunming on the local tourism industry after the impact of the next few years, Found that although the Expo has ended, But the next few years on the local tourism industry still has a significant impact on, So that after the Shanghai World Expo, the future of the tourism industry in Shanghai, there are still