【2017年整理】Climate Change .ppt

* * * * * CESM广东省累计年降水模拟效果 偏差最小：粤东诸河流域（＜10%） 偏差最大：粤西诸河流域（20~30%） 平均偏差：广东省（10~20%） CESM广东省年降水量十年滑动平均 同期RCP2.6，RCP4.5 辐射强迫增长变缓 同期RCP4.5 辐射强迫转折 RCP6.0，RCP8.5 降水波动增长 约20年周期 IPCC AR4全球气候模式数据集的应用研究 研究内容 研究者 研究区域 结论/应用 模式评估 张莉；张宏芳；刘敏 等； 顾问 等；曾小凡 等； 孙颖 等；田芝平 等 中国地区 低分辨率导致局地误差 多模式集合数据更好 模拟应用 刘智勇 等 广东省 气候模式+生态模型 张徐杰 等 汉江流域 气候模式+水文模型 Yu 等 东海 气候模式+海洋模型 研究展望 IPCC AR5(含CCSM4.0等多个模式） 多个全球模式结果集合，减小降水偏差 IPCC AR5+WRF3.4.1 全球模式结果驱动中尺度Weather Research and Forecasting Model 网格降尺度，分辨率↑，模拟效果↑ 时间降尺度，月值→日值，计算暴雨、中小雨 Thank You 1 Warming isnt really happening, its all down to the urban heat-island effect‘? Yes, cities and towns are warmer than the countryside. But climate scientists try to correct for these when working out the globes average temperature. The indicators that?temperatures are rising?come from a myriad of sources, not just land-based temperature records. Satellites, tree-rings, snow and ice-cores, stalactites and corals. 2 Global warming stopped years ago; its yesterdays story? Some years will be colder than others, even as temperatures are rising over the long term. Thats down to shifting oceanic and atmospheric circulations patterns, which can cycle up-and-down over a number of years. When scientists talk about global warming, what they mean is a change in the average atmospheric temperature across the whole globe - and across a 10 to 15-year period. Thats enough to even out much of that natural bumping around. 3 Even if the planet is warming, the climate has always changed - why worry? Geologically, planet earths climate is always on the go, thanks to plate tectonics,?volcanic eruptions, and a wobbly orbit around the sun. But the changes being seen now are not comparable to those seen in the past - they are faster than any previous temperature changes we see in the geological record. And speed kills. The rate of change may be too much for much of the life on the planet to adapt to and survive. 4?Carbon dioxide?is a boon to the green world, we really need more o