关于我国统计指标消除季节因素影响方法的探讨.pdf

26 10 Vol 26, No10 2009 10 Statistical Research Oct 2009 杜子芳 : , , , , , X12 , , : ; ; : C812 : A : 1002- 4565( 2009) 10- 0019- 06 The Method to Reduce the Influence of Traditional Chinese Calendar Du Zifang Abstract: The key t adjust indicat rs f ur c untry seas nally lies in the transf rmati n fr m Greg rian calendar t traditi nal Chinese calendar. There is n thing else different fr m ther devel ped c untries. As t the data seas nally adjusted with traditi nal Chinese calendar, X-12 can be used f r the f ll wing pr cess. There are several meth ds t reduce the influence f traditi nal Chinese calendar. This paper pr p ses t app rti n the tendency in data and t fix the seas nal fact rs in rder t reduce the influence f traditi nal Chinese calendar . Key words: seas nal influence; seas nal adjustment; Chinese calendar influence , , 30 ; ( GDP 10%, ) , , 10% , 1% , ( ) , , , , , , , ( ) , , 3 2003 2008 : , , , , , , ; , , : ( 1) , , ; (2) 20 2009 10 , , , , ( , ) , , , , , , ; , , , , , , , X- 12 , , TRAMO SEATS Demetra , ( ) , , , , , , X- 11 10 , , 30 , , ,