毕业论文-人民储蓄与中国GDP关系分析研究.doc

郑州大学西亚斯国际学院 本科毕业论文 题目人民储蓄与中国GDP关系分析研究 指导教师玲职称副教授 学生姓名张艺萌学号20101232360 专业金融学班级金融学3班 院（系）商学院经济与贸易系 完成时间 2014年4月 30 日摘要 ，一国的储蓄与GDP的关联性对一国的经济。，中国的增长，的储蓄也很同时期的的人民储蓄与是什么关系呢？本文利用和计量经济学的知识，收集了1992-2013年中国城乡居民的储蓄额和与之对应的GDP数据，分析二者之间的相关系数，相关系数分析发现之间存在着一定的线性关系，有很强的相关性。了解这种关系通过建立模型，运用最小二乘估计法分析验证，并在Eviews软件中进行结构分析检验中国居民储蓄和对应时期的GDP的关系。检验结果表明，GDP与居民储蓄额存在着同相变动的关系，这一关系有一定的波动性，整体，人民储蓄与中国正相关线性关系。通过研究结果对未来储蓄走势情况作出预测，为政府部门制定合理的经济政策、人民投资做出明智的选择提供策参考。 【关键词】人民储蓄GDP，关联性最小二乘法 ABSTRACT Because of the potential promotion effort of the economic growth, some underdeveloped countries, especially the developing countries, formulate and carry out some economic policies aiming at increasing their own people savings ratio in order to increase GDP rate. In the international political and economic environment, many scholars think that the rapid china economic growth has close correlation with our high savings ration. From the angle of econometrics, this thesis takes advantage of savings amount and according GDP date of china urban and rural residents of 1992-2013,builds up model, applies least square estimation to analyze the relationship between annual balance of china residents’ bank savings deposits and GDP amount in order to study Chinese presidents savings situation, feature and the mutual effect level between savings and GDP. The thesis also does construction inspection on relation coefficent of china people savings and contemporaneous GDP and the result shows that GDP and people savings change toward one direction. Although both are positive correlation, they are not always corresponding, which is decided by our special national situation. So on the policy aspact, It should be cautious to balance the positive correlation relationship to make a reasonable and suitable for the national situation policy. In addition, it could be deep understand the reason of high savings and low consumption by the comparison of savings situation between china and USA. By the analysis result and reason analys