人口老龄化对日本经济的影响毕业外文翻译.doc

人口老龄化对日本经济的影响外文翻译 Economic Impacts of Population Aging in Japan Executive Summary Landis MacKellar with Tatiana Ermolieva David Horlacher Leslie Mayhew Introduction The population of Japan is now declining, and the ratio of persons in the prime working ages to persons who are elderly will inexorably rise over the next half century. Thirty years ago, the view was widely held that rapid population growth and the resulting young age structure would prevent developing countries from ever rising above poverty. As that view gave way to a more nuanced interpretation of the effects of population growth, paradoxically, the view took hold that the reverse demographic situation -- population decline and an elderly population -- implied catastrophe for rapidly aging developed countries such as Japan. This report is an attempt to assess the economic impacts of foreseeable demographic trends on Japan. Report summary The first chapter of the report, a general synthesis of the economics of population aging, emphasizes that aging does not hit a society as a meteorite hits an inert planet. Even without taking into account institutional and social change, the traditional static neoclassical model of the economy suggests that there is a wealth of possibilities for adapting to the challenge of aging. Just as a neoclassical view would hold that rapid population growth need not mire developing countries in poverty, so does it suggest that population aging need not, as some have suggested, bankrupt the advanced industrial economies of the world. However, shifting factor prices as the working-age population declines and the rising cost of pension and health systems as the ranks of the elderly expand will give rise to intergenerational distributional pressures needing to be worked out through the political process. The evidence suggests that young people in the U.S., Europe and Japan and eventually in China and the more rapidly aging developing countries wil